UK Elections 2015

[comrade_general]

Go Poland!

[Jubal]

The campaign seems to be pretty much static, at the moment.

The SNP seem to be if anything advancing in Scotland though; a recent poll showed them ahead in one of the few seats Labour looked likely to hold, and with a fairly hefty majority in Ross, Skye, and Lochaber. 

[Glaurung]

Some interesting thoughts from the BBC's deputy political editor on issues of constitutionality and legitimacy that might arise after the election.

[Jubal]

No polling movement, and the day draws ever closer... looks like Lib Dems in the low to mid twenties, the SNP around fifty, and Labour and the Tories... somewhere around 270 apiece, but where is anyone's guess.

We may well end up with another election later this year!

[Glaurung]

That's a distinct possibility. The trouble is that it might well produce more or less the same result again. The opinion polls haven't changed significantly for several months at least, despite all the campaigning - I doubt that another six months will change things much either, unless whoever forms a government makes a serious mess of it.

[Jubal]

I think another election would end up producing a result - the turbulence resulting from a disintegrating hung parliament would surely shift things enough one way or another to get us somewhere.

[Glaurung]

Maybe. I guess the closest precedent we have is 1974 - the second general election did produce a majority, but it was a tiny one, and I'm not sure that the resulting government was very effective.

[Jubal]

Yes, I don't suppose the interim period would produce a huge majority, but it would probably produce a government of some sort.

[Pentagathus]

Is it not looking likely to be a minority labour government backed up by SNP and other lefty parties? IIRC Ed ruled out a formal coalition with them but not any form of alliance.

[Jubal]

I think Ed's ruled out Confidence & Supply now as well, or at least ruled out giving any concessions in order to get C&S.

[Glaurung]

I've lost track of which parties have ruled working with which other parties and with what level of commitment. It wouldn't surprise me at all if we see some fairly rapid eating of words after the election, once we know what the viable combinations are.

[Glaurung]

A couple of interesting BBC articles I found this morning:

One is from Nick Bryant, the BBC's "man in New York", on the state of democracy in the UK and other 'first world' countries. He identifies an increasing disconnect between politicians and the electorate, and considers some reasons for this: the development of the stage-managed career politician, and the growth of non-party pressure groups.

The other comes out of an interview with Gus O'Donnell, Cabinet Secretary (i.e. the top civil servant) at the time of the last election. He expressed his concern that the UK electoral system is unfit for purpose, because of the "unparalleled divergence between votes cast and seats received", where a likely outcome is "the Conservatives will win England, the SNP will win in Scotland, and we will end up, quite possibly with Ed Miliband and Labour running the UK."

[Jubal]

Go home, Labour. You are drunk.

This is the news that Miliband, who has apparently confused himself with Moses, has carved Labour's headline election pledges into an eight foot high stone slab.

Yes, you read that right.

http://www.buzzfeed.com/emilyashton/ed-miliband-has-carved-his-election-pledges-into-an-eight-fo

[Othko97]

As much as I feel this is unnecessary, I can kind of see his logic. I mean his pledges are now literally written in stone, I think he's just trying to avoid becoming Clegg.

[Glaurung]

Something else that might be of interest: a BBC Q&A article, setting out the process and possible outcomes after the election (assuming no party has an overall majority in the House of Commons), and explaining a lot of the relevant jargon.