Author Topic: UK Elections 2014  (Read 24167 times)

Jubal

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Re: UK Elections 2014
« Reply #60 on: August 28, 2014, 02:08:15 PM »
WE HAVE A BY-ELECTION COMING UP

And psephologist-Jubal is all excited :P
Though leftwing campaigning Jubal is kinda terrified.

Quote


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-28967904

Tory Douglas Carswell has defected to UKIP and quit as MP for Clacton, saying he will contest the subsequent by-election for Nigel Farage's party.

If he wins the support of voters he will be the first elected UK Independence Party MP in the Commons.
The maverick Eurosceptic backbencher said he wanted to "shake up" the cosy Westminster "clique".
Mr Carswell added he did not believe Prime Minister David Cameron was "serious about the change we need".
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Glaurung

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Re: UK Elections 2014
« Reply #61 on: August 28, 2014, 06:40:21 PM »
I expect I disagree with Douglas Carswell's political opinions, but I do at least approve of his decision to resign and go into a by-election with his new affiliation.

for those interested, the BBC News website has the Clacton constituency results from the 2010 election. At that point, Carswell had 53% of the vote, and a majority of 12,000. How much of that vote was for him personally as opposed to the Conservative party, and how much of the Conservative party vote will switch to UKIP now it has the choice, will be very interesting to see.

Jubal

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Re: UK Elections 2014
« Reply #62 on: August 28, 2014, 09:21:03 PM »
UKIP didn't stand in Claction in 2010, which probably boosted Carswell above the 50% mark - and the local Conservative association has been very heavily worked on by him since the seat was captured from Labour (then in its old form as Harwich).
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Clockwork

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Re: UK Elections 2014
« Reply #63 on: August 28, 2014, 11:38:46 PM »
Gooood. Another to join us.
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Jubal

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Re: UK Elections 2014
« Reply #64 on: September 21, 2014, 10:48:50 PM »
Scotland is still in the UK - next stop on the election train, Clacton!
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Jubal

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Re: UK Elections 2014
« Reply #65 on: September 27, 2014, 06:37:33 PM »
Another Con is gone! Mark Reckless this time, who will be fighting a by-election in Rochester and Strood.
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TTG4

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Re: UK Elections 2014
« Reply #66 on: September 30, 2014, 05:46:58 PM »
Strikes me as an odd time to jump when the tories seem to be drifting towards euroskepticism as a policy, unless they're just trying to save their position as an MP and don't really care if it's for UKIP rather than the tories. When are these by-elections anyway? It must be soon right?

Jubal

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Re: UK Elections 2014
« Reply #67 on: September 30, 2014, 05:53:53 PM »
Clacton is getting fairly close, Rochester will be late November or December I think?

There are several facts to explain the jump:
- The Tories are getting more Eurosceptic, but for those who want immediate exit Cameron is not offering that
- Cameron has on a personal level marginalised many of these people
- Political reform, direct democracy etc - both Reckless and Carswell are both vehemently in favour of that sort of thing and feel Cameron has reneged on it

UKIP isn't really about Europe in terms of this jump in popularity, it's a revolt of the white and non-elite conservative (small c) voting blocs as the Conservatives are seen as being too "metropolitan", an image that despite their policy swings they will not be able to shake off under Cameron's leadership.
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Clockwork

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Re: UK Elections 2014
« Reply #68 on: September 30, 2014, 10:06:42 PM »
I know its not exactly what you're talking about but I think it might be relevant. Btw, none of this is my opinion; all things I've heard when talking to people who have either switched to voting UKIP or are thinking of doing so. May or may not be of interest to you. I'm sure you're tired of my rhetoric Jub so I'll save you from it this once :)

From what I've spoken to people about;

Cameron is too half measures and Farrage is more decisive.

Farrage is a better speaker and politician.

Always wanted to but thought it was a wasted vote.

Heard things Farrage has said on radio/tv and was impressed.

Nationalism lacking in other parties, British pride etc.
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TTG4

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Re: UK Elections 2014
« Reply #69 on: September 30, 2014, 10:39:27 PM »
Speaking of Cameron, how long do people reckon he can last? It feels to me like someone's going to oust him if they make it to the next parliament, the speeches at conference of May and Johnson make that seem more likely to me.

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Re: UK Elections 2014
« Reply #70 on: September 30, 2014, 11:44:34 PM »
Colossus: don't worry about the rhetoric, I'm more than happy to hear yours as long as you can put up with mine :P

I think all of those are very real reasons though, and I will personally admit that I think Farage is a more charismatic leader with a better public presence than Cameron (I dislike him intensely as I make no secret of, but he is not without his talents by any means).

As to Cameron - assuming he loses the next election he will go after that, essentially. May is the more likely replacement than Johnson in my opinion, though I'm not sure either would really solve the party's problems.
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Clockwork

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Re: UK Elections 2014
« Reply #71 on: October 01, 2014, 01:05:42 AM »
Thanks Jub, always up for hearing from the other side.

Johnson for Emperor of London. I have posters and t-shirts.

I'm conflicted on Cameron. I don't think he's actually capable of anything more than mediocrity but I also think we could do worse (both within tories and among other parties in general). Johnson at least has the ambition and brains to lead...Plus he's crafty as hell, I respect his deviousness :D
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TTG4

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Re: UK Elections 2014
« Reply #72 on: October 01, 2014, 01:10:57 AM »
From my political standpoint Cameron's been a somewhat moderating influence on their image, sometimes it can feel like they're the only ones taking a decision rather than falling on soundbytes and rhetoric, but then someone like Rees-Mogg comes along and says something I find detestful and just no.

I'd be surprised if Osborne doesn't run too, but I doubt he'd have much of a chance. But I agree with Jub, the conservatives are facing a division problem

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Re: UK Elections 2014
« Reply #73 on: October 01, 2014, 09:34:35 AM »
If by moderating you mean he's more of a liberal/commie, then yes. But he always was, and I think this also means that a fair amount of the remaining Conservatives are as well. The middle-slightly right Conservatives would probably have gone to UKIP, but then again some may be staying to try and put them back on track. No se amigos.
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Re: UK Elections 2014
« Reply #74 on: October 08, 2014, 06:33:12 PM »
Don't get me started on politics.

I have been, and will continue to be, a UKIP voter. As much as I don't like that some of the Party members have a 'Tar all with the same brush' mentality and their attitude towards homosexuality, a lot of their ideas are simply grounded in common sense. They are one of the few parties that are actually willing to stop HS2 (Which will be a complete and total White Elephant) and get rid of expensive and inefficient wind turbines from the countryside (Seriously, solar panels are much better and cheaper!).

I get that many people think that UKIP essentially want to close the borders and not let anyone in, but I can assure you that this is just scaremongering. At no point has it been the official line that ALL immigration be stopped - Simply the completely free and open immigration afforded to the other members of the EU. I mean, is it really that much to ask that the people that want to live and work here speak English to the same level that everyone else does? That they work towards the same qualifications any school-leaver born here is expected to have? That they integrate into the society they have chosen to live in?

I'll go into more detail, but a bit later, otherwise I'll start frothing at the mouth.
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